Service Plays Friday 11/19/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Best NCAAF Bet

Fresno State Bulldogs At Boise State Broncos (-30.5, 66.5)

For the second time in a matter of three straight Fridays in which they will be shown live to a national television audience, the Boise State Broncos will be making their grand appearance, as they look to make headway in the BCS Championship race against the Fresno State Bulldogs.

Fresno State nearly made itself a Top 25 team last week, as it would have surely been ranked if not for the narrow loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack which really took away any chance of winning the WAC crown. The Bulldogs are never strangers to going to weird locations to do battle, as they have already done this season at the Ole Miss Rebels. The combination of QB Ryan Colburn and RB Robbie Rouse will have to play well for the Dogs to have any chance of pulling off the colossal upset, and neither one has had much of a problem with that on the campaign. Colburn has thrown for 1,930 yards and 18 TDs this year, and he has only been picked off seven times. Rouse has been absolutely brilliant at times, and his body of work makes him one of a slew of rushers that is just short of the 1,000 yard barrier on the season. Rouse rushed for 217 yards last week against the Wolf Pack, and that came on the heels of a 286 yard showing against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. All told, the Fresno back has four straight games with at least 115 yards on the ground.

The message from Boise State rang loud and clear last week when it crippled the Idaho Vandals in the Kibbie Dome: We want to win the National Championship, and we want it right now. There’s no one that will be attending the Smurf Turf on Friday night that doesn’t already know that the Broncos need to win out and get either the Auburn Tigers or Oregon Ducks to lose a game, but they want to make sure that it only takes one loss, not two of them, to see that happen. Boise State cut the lead that the TCU Horned Frogs held on it in half last week with all of the close calls that went on, and the loss by the Utah Utes was particularly damning to the men in black and purple. Boise certainly hasn’t faltered this year, as it has scored at least 42 points in all of its games aside from the ones against the Virginia Tech Hokies and Oregon State Beavers and has held its other foes to an average of just 8.7 points per game, including two shutouts. There aren’t many teams that can say that they rank No. 4 in the country in total offense and No. 3 in total defense. This is also another chance for QB Kellen Moore to prove that he is the real deal and is a Heisman Trophy contender. Moore has thrown for 2,588 yards and 24 TDs against four picks in nine games so far this year.

If we learned nothing else from the 42-7 win two weeks ago at home for the Broncos over the Hawaii Warriors, it’s that no one is coming onto the blue carpet and walking away with anything less than a sound defeat. Do you really believe that Fresno State is at least five points better than Hawaii is? We sure don’t. It’s a heck of a lot of lumber, but there’s a reason that the Broncos are favored by this many points. It might be close for a little while, but a team that cannot take its foot off the gas pedal has no choice but to win this one by at least five scores.

Pick: Boise State Broncos -30.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tale Of The Tape: Fresno State at Boise State

Fresno State Bulldogs At Boise State Broncos (-30.5, 66.5)

The Boise State Broncos, darlings of the weeknight game, host WAC rival Fresno State in a game that has resembled a blowout in each of the past four meetings. However, a 30-point spread could be a difficult hill to climb, even for the BCS busting Broncos.

Offense:

Boise State stud quarterback Kellen Moore is back on track to get an invite to New York City for the Heisman Trophy presentation. Moore has thrown for 2,588 yards with 24 touchdowns against four interceptions this season, including tossing at least two in each of his past five starts. On the ground, the Broncos average more than 214 yards per game, the 16th-best mark in the country. Tailback Doug Martin has 866 rush yards this season, while Jeremy Avery has a team-high 11 rushing scores this season.

Overall, the Broncos average a staggering 47.6 points per game.

Fresno State, however, does one thing better than anything else on offense: score points. The team is 35th nationally in rushing yards per game (180.3), 61st in passing yards (219.2) and 51st in total yards (399.6), but averages nearly 35 points, the 23rd best mark in the nation.
Running back Robbie Rouse is the catalyst for the team’s strong rushing attack, gaining 944 yards on the ground to go with 10 scores.

Edge: Boise State Broncos

Defense:

The Broncos have a surprisingly strong stop unit, giving up the third fewest total yards (240.8), second fewest rushing yards (74.9) and points (12.8) per game. The team also has a superior pass defense, touting the 10th-ranked secondary in the country as the group is giving up an average of just 165.9 aerial yards per game. In the team’s most recent game, a 52-14 win over Idaho, it held the Vandals offense to just 316 total yards and forced three interceptions.

This unit is the biggest weakness on the Bulldogs. The team coughs up an average of more than 28 points per game – 78th nationally – and isn’t great at slowing teams down on their way to the end zone. The team has a decent passing defense, yielding an average of 193.9 yards per game through the air, but defensive back Desia Dunn leads the team with a meager two interceptions. If teams struggle at all passing, they switch to the ground, where Fresno State allows more than 155 yards per game, in the bottom half of teams nationally.

Edge: Boise State Broncos

Special Teams:

Broncos kicker Kyle Brotzman has nailed 10 field goals and 41 extra points this year, but has a long of just 47 yards. On the other sideline, Kevin Goessling has banged 15 field goals to go with 37 PATs. Goessling also has a long of 50 yards this season.

Fresno State can block the hell out of some kicks. Pat Hill’s boys lead the nation in snuffed kicks, smacking back an NCAA-high six this season. The team is sound in the kicking game and uses it as a big momentum shift in close games.

Boise State, however, does have three blocked kicks of its own.

Edge: Fresno State Bulldogs

Word On The Street:

“It does bother us -- but not the fact that the starters are out, but more the fact that they’re scoring no matter who’s out there. You have a sense that maybe we’re easing up a little bit or not playing with that urgency.” – Senior nickel back Winston Venable on the backups giving up more points than the starters the past six games.

"We got them to just play football. When they need plays, they try to mess up your eyes with their shifting and moving and hit you with trick plays. But our eyes were right. We weren't fooled. They eventually stopped their shifting and moving, and that's when we really took it to them. It can be done still. You just got to make them play your style, play Bulldog football." - Former Fresno State linebacker Alan Goodwin on the Bulldogs last win over Boise State in 2005.

Final Score Prediction:

Boise State 54, Fresno State, 27

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fresno State at Boise State: What Bettors Need To Know

Fresno State Bulldogs At Boise State Broncos (-30.5, 66.5)

Oddsmakers are forecasting a blowout Friday night when the Fresno State Bulldogs pay a visit to the blue turf at Boise State. Here is a look at that feature game, which has the Broncos listed as -30.5 favorites

Why Fresno State Will Cover

The key to a Fresno State cover will rely on Robbie Rouse. The 5-foot-7 sophomore running back has been on a tear, rushing for a combined 503 yards in just two games.

His 217-yard, two-touchdown performance against Nevada last week was particularly impressive, considering that Nevada was only giving up 115.2 yards rushing yards per game heading into that contest.

Pat Hill will utilize his new star and we should see him focus more on the rush. What this means for bettors is that possession times will be higher than average for the Bulldogs, which should make a -30.5 cover difficult. Remember that last year, Fresno State running back Ryan Matthews ran for 234 yards against the Broncos

Factor that in with the Broncos vulnerability to a backdoor cover. One can’t blame Boise State for having its minds focused on Nevada next week or even its bowl game in January. Even if the Broncos get out to a four-touchdown lead early, they will look to rest starters and kill the clock.

In fact in their last four WAC games, the Broncos have actually been outscored 21-14 in the fourth quarter.

Why Boise State Will Cover

Boise State can’t control what Oregon, Auburn or TCU do on the field so, in an attempt to win over voters, its only option is to blowout every team left on their schedule. The No. 4 team in the BCS has done a good job of covering the spread going 7-2 ATS. This stat is even more impressive as the Broncos have had to deal with an average line of -27.5

This Friday, they encounter a Fresno State squad that is coming off a heart-breaking one-point loss to Nevada and a team that Chris Peterson has dominated. The fifth-year head coach has covered the spread in all four of his encounters with the Bulldogs and, in their last game on the blue turf, Boise State won 61-10.

Fresno State is a decent 6-3 this year but only two of those games were against teams with a winning record (not counting the game against 7-4 Cal Poly). The two games were against Hawaii and Nevada and the Bulldogs gave up 49 points and 35 points respectively.

Boise State’s offense and defense are much more dynamic than Hawaii and Nevada, which should translate into the Broncos easily scoring seven touchdowns and in keeping Fresno State well below its season scoring average.

Combine that with the motivation for blowing out the game on national TV and you have the makings of another Boise State cover.

Notes On The Total

The total opened at 65.5 at most books and has since moved up by a point to 66.5. During the Chris Peterson era at Boise State, this matchup has gone over the total three out of four times. The last two weren’t even close to the posted number. The total was 57 in 2008 and 71 points were scored. Last year, the number was just at 52.5 and 85 points were scored.

However, take note of the fact that Boise State is on a two-game under streak in which it has taken it easy in the second half.


Key Match-Up: Fresno State OL vs Boise State DL

Simply put, Fresno State will not have a chance to put up points if it can’t stop the Boise State defensive line. The Bulldogs have key offensive linemen Andrew Jackson and Joe Bernardi (Both preseason WAC first teamers) listed as questionable, so it will be up to the backups to make way for Robbie Rouse and give quarterback Ryan Colburn time to make plays.

The Line And Weather

The spread has remained steady at -30.5 at most books and consensus opinion appears to be split. Translation: Books have done their job and don’t care what the result is.

There is a 50 percent chance of rain and snow showers are expected by kickoff in Boise, with lows in the high 20s and Northwest winds at approximately 10 mph.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Round-Up For Friday

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics (-7.5) with a total of 201
This should be a good game. Something about it just makes me feel like we're in for a treat. The Thunder are scoring points in big-time bunches lately, putting up at least 104 points in each of their last 5 games, and winning 4 of those. The last team to hold them under 100? These very Boston Celtics, when they came into Oklahoma City and dominated the Thunder to the tune of a 92-83 final score. The Thunder are still having some defensive issues, and someone with the sheer size of Shaq should give them some issues with rebounding, but the Thunder can get Shaq in foul trouble quickly, and get themselves into the penalty. You do not want to let the Thunder shoot free throws, and getting to the line is going to be a top priority for OkC in this contest. Boston's team defense is going to try to keep that from happening. I do think the revenge angle will come into play a little, though Boston is really focused this year on stepping on other teams' throats when they get ahead. So, the simple question - can the Thunder keep this game close? If so, I think Boston will tire a little more quickly, and as the game progresses, the teams will get closer to each other in intensity. If that's the case, you have to like the Thunder. If you believe Boston gets out to an early lead, this is a team that plays well from ahead. For my sanity, I lean to the THUNDER and the OVER.

Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 187
The Sixers are pretty terrible, and they're even worse without Andre Iguodala. I'll admit, I didn't think Iguodala's injury would completely take this team out of their gameplan, but it seems like his mere presence on the court gives everyone else confidence, or at least puts them in a better position to succeed. So, while they may be the "sharp" side in this game as the short home dog, I'm just not in a position to back Philadelphia until they show they can play a complete game and get some easy points. The only thing pushing me towards the Philly side is that Milwaukee is coming off a home loss to the Lakers, and after this one, they go right back home to host the Oklahoma City Thunder. So, to some degree, this game could be considered a sandwich affair, but I'm not buying it. The Bucks have taken on the mentality of their coach, and they go out and play their butts off every single night. They will control the pace of the game, they will make fewer mistakes, and they will win. Will they cover? That's where the confusion sets in. Tiny lean to MILWAUKEE, and better lean to the UNDER.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards with a total of N/A
This game, to me, comes down to John Wall's health, and so the lack of early line is completely understandable. We saw Washington step up and play the "Injured Star" game, completely trouncing the Raptors. Then, the next night, the lack of John Wall became all too evident as the "other" guys got shut down entirely by a solid Boston Celtics defense. Now, back home and playing a team that has a level of defensive intensity that probably falls a bit closer to Toronto's end of the spectrum than Boston's, Washington is going to try to put up points. But, if neither team plays defense, and John Wall isn't around to make the exciting plays, Memphis should out-talent the Wizards. Hoooooweeeeeeeverrrrr, and this is a biggie...the Grizzlies HOST the Miami Heat tomorrow. This is a look-ahead spot, and Memphis doesn't even have a day to think about it. My initial reaction is to watch this game and then play the Memphis-Miami game accordingly, but we might very well see an unfocused Grizzlies team. If they're laying too many points, think about the WIZARDS, but a short line is a pass, and if Memphis isn't paying attention, this one could sneak OVER.

Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors (-1) with a total of 206.5
This game features a situational/scheduling angle worth noting, as Toronto returns home off a marginally successful road trip that opened with a win in Orlando, a competitive loss in Miami, a bad loss in Washington, and an ugly win in Philadelphia. Now, back home, where Toronto actually hasn't looked much better than they have on the road, the Raptors host a banged up Houston team looking for consistency, health, and a few wins against lesser teams. Houston doesn't play again until next week, while Toronto hosts a division opponent in Boston, though a team as bad as the Raptors doesn't really have any reason to look ahead. So, in terms of just scheduling and situational spots, you have to think the Raptors are at a bit of a disadvantage. In terms of matchups, these teams aren't that different. I happen to think the Rockets are better coached, and can play better defense if they care to, but either team could beat the other on any given night. This night, I like HOUSTON and the UNDER, if but barely.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Miami Heat (-12) with a total of 194
Confound it. This Heat team is going to be playing with lines that are just insane all year long, but I'll admit, I'm having trouble deciding if this line is just wildly inflated because of public hype, or because Miami is about to go on a run, and oddsmakers want to make sure there's sufficient money coming in on the opposite side. This is the final game of a 6-game homestand for the Heat, so you know darn well they're going to want to head out on the road with a good taste in their mouths. For Charlotte, we can be pretty certain they'll be giving max effort in this one, but it remains to be seen if that's going to be enough. Charlotte does not have the type of team that's been giving Miami problems - that is, a quick, healthy, skilled point guard and/or a big man. Charlotte's skill is at the wing positions, and those guys could very easily get dominated by LeBron and Wade. I do like that Charlotte appears to be, at least beginning to play a little better, but this game doesn't have enough reasons for me to take either side. NO LEAN on the side, and I have to think we see a possession game, this total is close to correct, tiny lean to the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-10) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 218
Well, last time these teams played, the Wolves kept it nice and close with L.A., but I'm not sure that just wasn't a spot where the Lakers were playing with zero passion and were in a letdown off their big win over Portland. This time around, the Lakers are finishing up a short road trip that they've dominated, so far, and the next game is back home against the Warriors. This isn't a look-ahead spot, a let-down spot, or anything in particular, and I can't help but feel like the Wolves kind of shot their Lakers bullet down in California. The line is probably pretty close to correct, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers take this one by about a dozen, so miniscule lean to LAKERS, and medium lean to the OVER, since I can't imagine we'll see 50 turnovers between the 2 teams again.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Hornets (-10.5) with a total of 192.5
Amazingly, I happen to think the Cavs might be a better road team right now. Maybe it's the pressure of playing at home without LeBron, maybe it's just coincidental that injuries seem to occur on homestands, but the Cavs have actually shown some signs of life under Byron Scott, if only their impact players could get healthy. Of course, from this line, we can see that oddsmakers are now making the adjustment for the Hornets hot start. This is a big number. This looks like even a bigger number considering the Hornets are coming off a home-and-home series with the Mavs that was referred to as "similar to the playoffs" by some of the players involved. Is this a little bit of a letdown game? Maybe, but the Hornets really are pretty darn good, and if the Cavs aren't healthy, this might be a bit much for them to overcome. The Cavs play tomorrow in San Antonio (the Spurs get ANOTHER team on the second half of a back-to-back...don't get me started on that preferential scheduling), so if we get a strong effort from Cleveland here, maybe they're a fade tomorrow? Today, I think the CAVALIERS sneak under the spread, and I like the UNDER.

San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz (-2.5) with a total of 203.5
Those darn Spurs have really come out of the gates strong, haven't they? As I mentioned above, it was awfully kind of David Stern and co. to give San Antonio a bunch of teams on the second day of a back-to-back, while rarely playing any themselves, but I guess when the League wants to keep a team around for another season or two, the League gets what it wants. This will be a nice test for the Spurs, going on the road to play a strong team playing good basketball, and to me, this line is about right. The Spurs have shown an ability to win both at home and on the road, though I might not take as much away from that win in Oklahoma City as others might. The Spurs just have the Thunder's number. The opposite might be said for this series, as Utah beat the Spurs into submission last year. Yes, San Antonio has better health this time around, and Richard Jefferson is useful, again, but Deron Williams is too strong for Tony Parker, and with a game that's pretty close to a pick, I think you have to consider the home team in the high-energy environment. Lean to UTAH and the OVER.

Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks (-5) with a total of 195
Fade the Mavs at home, back them on the road, it just keeps holding true. Even in the most improbable of situations. Dallas beat the Hornets at home, but failed to cover, then lost to the Hornets on the road, and managed to cover the spread. It's just insane, at this point. The Bulls, here, continue the Circus trip, having won in Houston with a nice effort, and then lost in San Antonio, once again playing a back-to-back against a rested Spurs team. I can't even believe how many times that concept is coming up in this blog, but the Spurs' scheduling is just irking me today, I guess. In any event, Chicago will tire out at some point on this trip, but in Dallas doesn't seem like the time. They have a few days off after this game, too, to catch their breath, before starting the rest of the long roadie. For Dallas, as we talked about with New Orleans above, this could potentially be viewed as a letdown game, off those 2 hotly contested battles with the Hornets. The Mavericks also play in Atlanta tomorrow, and while I wouldn't call it a look-ahead, the schedule certainly lends to a 90% effort from the Mavs. Can they win and fail to cover yet again? Leans to CHICAGO and the UNDER.

New Jersey Nets @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) with a total of 196
I'll come right out and say it...I like Jersey in this one. Some of that is because the Kings have no consistency in their rotations on offense (a new small forward gets 25 minutes every night), and some of that is because of the coaching advantage already showing up (sorry Paul Westphal), but mostly, it's scheduling. The Kings have admitted that they're anxious to get a win after losing quite a few games in a row, but the harder they play, the more pressure they put on themselves, and the more mistakes they make. New Jersey plays a slower, defensive-minded game, just the type of basketball that could cause Sacramento to turn the ball over and take bad shots. And who is even going to play? We've seen it in baseball - there's absolutely something to be said for having a bullpen where each player knows his role. Well, in Sacramento, no one knows if they're going to play, or when, and outside of Tyreke Evans, who might be going through some sophomore year growing pains, it's a total mess. Over on the Jersey side, they still stink, but they're competitive pretty consistently, and they're beating bad teams by playing smarter. This has that feel, and on top of that, Jersey plays in Denver tomorrow, with altitude following travel, as the last game of the 4-game roadie. Terrible spot tomorrow, which makes me think Jersey will work a little harder tonight. The one concern? Sacramento did lose in Jersey way back at the beginning of the season. I wonder how much they care... Lean to the NETS, and the UNDER.

New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors (-3) with a total of 221
This looks too easy to take Golden State, doesn't it? Just laying 3 points? The Warriors are a solid 7-4 on the season, and the Knicks are just 4-8, and yet, they're ranked the exact same on a neutral court? Something fishy, there. So, digging through the numbers and dates to figure out why, I have to think it's a combination of the Knicks finally starting to hit some shots (2nd half in Denver, last game in Sacramento), revenge (Warriors beat New York at MSG), and Golden State on a potential look-ahead to their game in Los Angeles, a revenge game for Golden State. In addition, the lack of David Lee has reared its head pretty considerably so far. They don't have that all-around worker grabbing offensive rebounds, hitting mid-range shots, defending, and of course, putting up bonus effort against his old team. A lot of signs point to the Knicks being a stronger than expected play in this game. Also, the Knicks play their 4th in 5 nights against the Clippers tomorrow, so like the Nets in the game above, this is a nice spot for New York to grab a win before they tucker out. Lean to the KNICKS and to the OVER.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Friday's Best NBA Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics (-6.5, 199.5)

Consider it the argument of rust vs. rest.

The Celtics were able to rest their starters for a huge chunk of a 114-83 win over the Wizards on Wednesday. Except for Shaquille O’Neal, who has missed extensive time with injuries, all starters played a season-low in minutes. All told, the Celtics used 12 players – all of which who scored – including guard Delonte West, who made his season debut by notching 12 points, five rebounds and four assists in 21 minutes.

"You've got to get yourself thrown back into the season," Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. "But now it's time to get our minutes to where we want them."
Meantime the Thunder also will be coming off a relatively easy win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday. Outscoring the visitors in every quarter, Oklahoma City was able to play 11 players with only Russell Westbrook logging more than 30 minutes.

So which team will be fresh and which will be rusty? In an earlier matchup this season, Boston knocked off the Thunder, 92-83 in the first game of a four-game road trip. The C’s also were coming off of a full-day’s rest prior to that win. Look for history to repeat itself.

Pick: Boston Celtics


New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors (-3.5, 221)

The Golden State Warriors are huge fans of their home crowd.

The team is a stunning 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season, including wins over Utah and Memphis. Golden State also has scored at least 101 points in four of those five games, using its up-tempo attack and intriguing bench to grind down opponents in high-scoring affairs.

The team will be without forward David Lee, but still did a great job getting a staggering 74 points in the paint from penetrating guard Monta Ellis and athletic center Andris Bierdrins.

Meantime the Knicks are struggling to set a starting lineup, let alone a winning one, suffering through injuries to forwards Ronnie Turiaf and Anthony Randolph and debating between starting swingman Wilson Chandler or brining him off the bench.

In the team’s most recent home victory, a 101-97 win against Detroit, the team has ditched style points and has a certain edge to it that the Knicks have failed to find all year.

"It's just a win," Vladimir Radmanovic, the third different starter in as many games for David Lee, told the San Francisco Chronicle. "At the end of the season, no one is going to remember how we won. They'll just know that we won."

Pick: Golden State Warriors

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ICE PICKS

Friday's Best NHL Bets

New York Rangers at Colorado Avalanche (-130, 5.5)

The Colorado Avalanche is an offensive juggernaut. Seriously.

The squad is averaging 3.4 goals per game, the third-most in the league, puts an average of nearly 29 shots on goal per game, and is operating at a phenomenal 20.3 percent on the power play.

And all this with Calder Trophy runner-up Matt Duchene suffering from a bit of a sophomore slump. The pivot has 14 points this year, but just two goals. However, 17 different players have scored a goal this season, and the team’s 10 wins have come via six different players with a game-winning goal.

The team showed its versatility in a 3-1 win over the Rangers earlier this year, getting goals from two different players and a complete team effort in killing off all five New York man advantages while cashing in on two of their three chances.

"We've got a young bunch of guys that like to hang out together," injured Colorado goalie Craig Anderson said. "This really gives us an opportunity to bond as a team, come together off the ice. When you're better friends and better teammates off the ice, it shows on the ice."

On the ice against the Rangers on Friday, the team will again show its strong chemistry.

Pick: Colorado Avalanche


Phoenix Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers (+114, 5.5)

The best thing that could happen to the Oilers this season did on Tuesday – overpaid sieve Nikolai Khabibulin was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury. The 37-year-old goalie has given up an NFL-high 56 goals this season, posting a 4-10-1 record with a pathetic 4.07 goals-against average and a below-average .879 save percentage.

So who will take his place between the pipes?

Try Devan Dubnyak, a 25-year-old who is 0-0-2 with a 2.99 GAA and a .923 save percentage this season. Not exactly who you would call a Vezina candidate.

“The bottom line is that we need to be much, much better in front of him,” Oilers coach Tom Renney said. “The best way to protect your goaltender is to adapt, forecheck, keep the puck in the other end, minimize the chances against, never mind just the shots against. And we haven’t been able to do that on a regular basis. We have to take responsibility for whatever those numbers (goals against average) might reflect, 23 people have to look at that.”

And those numbers won’t get much better against the Coyotes, who are averaging 3.75 goals-per game during a four-game win streak.

Pick: Phoenix Coyotes

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Friday's Wagering Tips

Who’s Hot

Memphis has seen the over hit in 11 of its past 16 games overall.

Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its past 15 road games.

St. Louis is 15-3 SU in its past 18 home games.

Carolina has seen the over hit in seven of its past eight road games.

Who’s Not

Cleveland has seen the under hit in 14 of its past 18 games as an underdog.

Sacramento is 7-23-1 ATS in its past 31 home games.

Calgary is 1-7 SU in its past eight games overall.

Minnesota has seen the under hit in nine of its past 10 games overall.

Key Stat

7- Points the Avalanche have earned from games they were trailing in the third period this season. Colorado has turned four near defeats into three wins and an overtime loss. Washington also has earned seven points in similar games this season, tying them with the Avs for the most in the NHL.
Game of the day

Game Of The Day

Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos (-30, 66.5)

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

The San Diego Chargers are expected to welcome back receivers Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd after both have missed time with injuries. However, the status of stud tight end Antonio Gates remains in limbo. Three weeks ago, Gates was a dark-horse candidate for league MVP. Now, it is unknown if he will be able to suit up and play against the Broncos on Monday night as the chargers try to climb back into the AFC West Division race. He is expected to be a game-time decision. “I’ve never had to be 100 percent to play,” Gates told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “But still there is a criteria which you need to meet to get out there on the field — that’s being able to run, being able to do something off the foot where it doesn’t bother me.”

Notable Quotable

"I wasn't happy with who I was. I was doing things morally, inside, I knew I shouldn't be doing." – Tiger Woods during an interview this week on Mike and Mike in the Morning.

Notes And Tips

J.R. Smith is one of the streakiest shooters but biggest head cases in the NBA. With rookie Gary Forbes posting a better shooting percentage and rebounding average, however, Smith has played less than two minutes total in the Nuggets past two games entering Thursday. And that trend could continue. “I think J.R. knows exactly where we’re at,” Karl said Wednesday. “I think right now, it’s J.R. and me, and I think J.R. should understand what’s going on. I’ve got a kid playing better than he is playing. And I don’t have minutes to share.”

The surging Atlanta Thrashers could be dealt a huge blow. Defenseman Dustin Byfuglien suffered a lower-body injury and his status for upcoming games is unknown. This is a poor turn of events for Atlanta, which has emerged as a defensive-minded team that relies on the counter-attack for its scores. "It depends on the swelling," Thrashers coach Craig Ramsay said. "They did some treatments, and we'll have to wait and see how it is."

Look for it to really be a revamped North Carolina Tar Heels team this year. Freshman Harrison Barnes looks like the real deal, exploding for 19 points, seven rebounds and a block in a 107-63 win over Hofstra. The elite recruit also finished 4-of-5 from beyond the arc and helped the Tar Heels go 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS.

 

[JMEYERS]

JSM Sports WEEKEND SYSTEMS



HRC PREMIUM NCAA FOOTBALL ACTION-November 20th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************

[321] Florida st |10*|Bet C|OPEN -3.5|B+1/2|ABC|8:00 pm EST

[337] Missouri |8*|Bet B|OPEN -10.5|B+1/2|FSN|7:00 pm EST

[393] Utah |8*|Bet B|OPEN -2.5|B+0|Network N/A|10:00 pm EST




note*
This is the "NCAA V2 SPREAD SYSTEM" buy 1/2 on only even spreads (4 game chase)





HRC PREMIUM NFL ACTION-November 21st-22nd

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
******************

[416] Tennessee |8*|Bet B|OPEN -6.5|B+1/2|FOX|1:00 pm EST

[410] Pittsburgh |5*|Bet A|OPEN -6.5|B+1/2|CBS|1:00 pm EST

[420] Minnesota |5*|Bet A|OPEN +3.5|B+1/2|FOX|1:00 pm EST

[427] Seattle |5*|Bet A|OPEN +12.5|B+1/2|FOX|4:05 pm EST

[437] Denver |5*|Bet A|OPEN +10.5|B+1/2|ESPN|8:35 pm EST


note*
This is the "NFL SPREAD SYSTEM" buy 1/2 on only even spreads (4 game chase)

 

[JMEYERS]

HRC PREMIUM NHL ACTION-November 19th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[18] Anaheim |5*|Bet A|-135|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST


note*
This is the "NHL Spread System" (3 game chase)





HRC PREMIUM NHL ACTION-November 19th

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************

[10] St Louis |5*|Bet A|-140|B+0|Network N/A|8:05 pm EST


note*
This is the "NHL TOPS System" (3 game chase)

 

[drf1225]

Billy Coleman

4* Spurs +2.5
3* Kings -4
3* Raptors Under 207

3* Lamar -5
3* Boise State PK

paid and confirmed

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS
Rocky Sheridan

FRIDAY NIGHT NBA 6 PACK
5* Toronto Raptors +1
5* San Antonio Spurs +2.5
5* New Jersey Nets +3.5
5* Los Angeles Lakers -9.5
5* New Orleans Hornets -9.5
5* Golden State Warriors -3.5

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NO BRAINER
5* Boise State/Fresno State Over 66

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with UCLA (+2-1/2) Thursday night.

Friday it's Boise State. The deficit is 90 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NCAA CBB

Season
Straight Up: 288-61 (.825)
ATS: 80-91 (.468)
ATS Vary Units: 380-402 (.486)
Over/Under: 65-60 (.520)
Over/Under Vary Units: 134-142 (.486)

2K Sports Classic
at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Maryland 79, Illinois 74
Championship
Pittsburgh 79, Texas 74
Irvine Subregional at Irvine, CA
Louisiana Tech 79, Seattle 73
UC IRVINE 78, Navy 67
Toledo Subregional at Toledo, OH
Rhode Island 83, College of Charleston 79
Uic 64, TOLEDO 57
Charleston Classic
at Carolina First Arena, Charleston, SC
Charlotte 76, East Carolina 73
Coastal Carolina 69, USC Upstate 57
Championship Semifinals
Georgetown 71, Wofford 62
NC State 69, George Mason 61
Global Sports Hoops Showcase
Round Robin at Auburn, AL
AUBURN 75, Samford 57
Middle Tennessee 67, Campbell 63
Legends Classic
Atlanta Regional at Atlanta, GA
GEORGIA TECH 78, New Hampshire 63
Puerto Rico Tip-Off
at Coliseo de Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR
Nebraska 74, Davidson 64
Western Kentucky 77, Hofstra 73
Championship Semifinals
Minnesota 75, North Carolina 69
West Virginia 75, Vanderbilt 66
SMU Invitational
Round Robin at Dallas, TX
SMU 72, Portland State 70
UC Riverside 67, Lamar 65
U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam
1st Round at UVI Sports & Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, USVI
Alabama vs. Seton Hall: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Clemson 79, Long Beach State 64
Old Dominion 63, Saint Peter's 48
Xavier 76, Iowa 61
Non-Conference
Boise State 69, SAN DIEGO 66
BOSTON U. 81, Marist 52
Cleveland State 70, LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 66
CORNELL 78, St. Bonaventure 64
DELAWARE 68, Howard 56
DUKE 90, Colgate 46
Hampton 69, FORDHAM 64
HARTFORD 63, Dartmouth 53
HAWAI'I 73, Central Arkansas 61
KANSAS 89, North Texas 66
KENT STATE 74, Furman 59
Kentucky 79, Portland 65
Lehigh 72, MONMOUTH 62
MIAMI (FLA.) 83, North Carolina Central 50
MISSISSIPPI STATE 79, Appalachian State 72
Missouri State 69, TULSA 68
NORTHWESTERN 71, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54
OREGON 76, Texas Southern 57
PENN STATE 69, Fairfield 60
ROBERT MORRIS 75, Duquesne 67
Sacramento State 72, NORTH DAKOTA 68
SOUTH CAROLINA 79, Radford 66
TEXAS TECH 78, Stephen F. Austin 68
Troy 68, GEORGIA STATE 67
TULANE 79, Centenary 59

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI CFB

Friday, November 19, 2010
Western Athletic Conference
BOISE STATE 52, Fresno State 21

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 99-58 (.631)
ATS: 92-71 (.564)
ATS Vary Units: 267-251 (.515)
Over/Under: 82-86 (.488)
Over/Under Vary Units: 115-111 (.509)

BOSTON 102, Oklahoma City 93
Milwaukee 96, PHILADELPHIA 93
TORONTO 108, Houston 105
Memphis 101, WASHINGTON 100
MIAMI 94, Charlotte 86
L.A. Lakers 112, MINNESOTA 98
NEW ORLEANS 101, Cleveland 96
UTAH 104, San Antonio 101
DALLAS 102, Chicago 95
SACRAMENTO 100, New Jersey 98
GOLDEN STATE 118, New York 110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 88-57 (.607)

PITTSBURGH 4, Carolina 3
DETROIT 3, Minnesota 2
Los Angeles vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Washington 4, ATLANTA 3
ST. LOUIS 3, Ottawa 2
N.Y. Rangers vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Phoenix vs. EDMONTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Chicago vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ANAHEIM 3, Columbus 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS CFB

10* FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (+30 or better)

Game: Fresno St. vs. Boise St. Game Time: 11/19/2010 9:30:00 PM Prediction: Fresno St. Reason: I'm playing on FRESNO STATE. There is no denying that the Broncos are a powerful team, particularly here on their blue turf. Indeed, they've outscored opponents by an average of 46.2 to 16.2 in going undefeated here this season. Tonight's opponent is a lot more talented than the majority of the other teams that the Broncos have been beating up on recently. That said, I believe this line is too high. The Bulldogs lost their last game. That was by just a single point vs. a potent Nevada team though. Speaking of the Wolfpack, note that Boise plays at Nevada next week. As the Broncos have had that game circled, as this season's one possible stumbling block, it may be pretty easy to look past Frenso here, particularly considering that they've (mostly) handled the Broncos with ease over the years. (Fresno did win 27-7 in 2005.) Speaking of Nevada, the Bulldogs very nearly beat the Wolfpack last week. They were winning in the fourth quarter and lost by a score of 35-34. While that was certainly a tough loss, it also showed that the Bulldogs are capable of trading punches with a high-scoring team - there were seven lead changes in that game. Granted, a home game against Nevada is a whole different story from a game on the blue turf, against this Bronco team. However, my point is that Fresno has been playing at a high level and should have confidence to believe it can compete. Prior to that, the Bulldogs had won three straight, outscoring opponents by a 106-62 margin. Two of those wins came on the road. While the Boise run defense is admittedly very good, Fresno's Robbie Rouse has rushed for more than 500 yards the past two weeks alone. By keeping the clock moving, the Fresno ground game should help lessen the amount of time that Kellen Moore and the Boise offense spends on the field. Speaking of Moore, he'll be up against a Fresno State defense which is holding opponents to 193.9 passing yards per game. In the WAC, only Boise allows less. The Broncos are currently giving up 165.9. The Bulldogs, who lost by 17 vs. Boise last season, are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs of greater than three touchdowns. I expect them to improve on those stats tonight, giving their hosts a tougher game than most are expecting and hanging within the inflated number. *10

BEN BURNS NHL

7* UNDER ATLANTA THRASHERS/WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Game: Washington Capitals vs. Atlanta Thrashers Game Time: 11/19/2010 7:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Washington and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. These teams have already met three times this season. The first meeting was here at Altanta. It had an O/U line of 6.5. The final score of 4-2 stayed below the total. Based on that result, the next two games, which were both at Washington, had O/U lines of six. As both of those games were high-scoring, we're now again seeing an O/U of 6.5. With all due respect to the Capitals offense, I believe that's a little too high. The Caps have seen the UNDER go 6-2 on the road this season and that includes a perfect 4-0 mark when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or greater. Their road games are averaging "only" 5.5 combined goals. While they've been a profitable 'over' team thus far, the Thrashers are off a 2-1 loss to Florida. Including that result, they've now seen four of their last five home games produce six or fewer combined goals. Including the earlier result, the UNDER is 9-5 the last 14 times that the Thrashers were a host in this series. I expect those stats to improve here. *7

8* UNDER BUFFALO SABRES/LA KINGS

Game: Los Angeles Kings vs. Buffalo Sabres Game Time: 11/19/2010 7:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on LA and Buffalo to finish UNDER the total. The Kings have allowed a whopping 11 goals in their last two games and they've seen three straight games finish above the number. I expect a major emphasis on improved defensive play tonight. LA coach Terry Murray was quoted as saying: "We don¡¦t like the way we¡¦ve played here now in the last couple of games. A couple of those goals look pretty easy for them, and that's really out of character for us." Murray went on to say: "We'll have to just tighten things up as we head out on the road..." Keep in mind that the 11 goals that the Kings allowed in those two games were as many as they allowed in their previous eight games combined. In their previous five games, they'd allowed only four combined goals. For the season, they're still only allowing 2.3 per game. Ten of their 17 games have fallen below the total. Looking at some O/U stats and we find the UNDER at 29-19 the past 2+ seasons when the Kings were off a loss by two goals or more. During that stretch, the UNDER was also 12-5 when they were off three or more consecutive games which finished above the total and 47-31 when they played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. The Sabres are off three straight games against "high-scoring teams" - two against Washington and one against Vancouver. They've still seen the UNDER go 4-2-1 their last seven though. With Miller and Quick likely to get the call, the goaltending matchup should be a good one. Quick currently ranks among the league's best goalies with a stellar 1.73 goals-against average. Not only is he off to the best start (10-2-0) by a goalie in Kings history, but he's also 2-0-0 with a 2.40 GAA in two starts against the Sabres. Of course, Miller is hardly a "slouch." The reigning Vezina Trophy winner is 2-1-0 with a superb 1.67 GAA in three home starts vs. the Kings. While I expect the Sabres to get strong goaltending, they still only average 2.2 goals per game at home. Facing an LA team determined to "tighten things up," I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. *8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Minnesota / Detroit UNDER 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day:

New York +4 over Golden State